Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.066498 0.076447 0.087708 0.101463 0.117902 0.137027 0.161122
2025-11-09 0.048934 0.060196 0.074042 0.092520 0.116845 0.148213 0.192448
2025-11-16 0.039533 0.051578 0.067506 0.090540 0.123731 0.171000 0.245641
2025-11-23 0.032474 0.044627 0.061780 0.088484 0.130388 0.196133 0.312529
2025-11-30 0.027620 0.039827 0.058143 0.088750 0.141000 0.231459 0.412223
2025-12-07 0.023695 0.035687 0.054717 0.088694 0.151586 0.271634 0.543442
2025-12-14 0.020024 0.031305 0.050095 0.085671 0.156528 0.304684 0.683415
2025-12-21 0.016373 0.026356 0.043633 0.077925 0.150465 0.314247 0.779822
2025-12-28 0.014452 0.024039 0.041366 0.077675 0.160106 0.364276 1.027237
2026-01-04 0.013078 0.022467 0.040180 0.079389 0.175144 0.436864 1.422295
2026-01-11 0.011767 0.020801 0.038513 0.079724 0.187442 0.511019 1.924905
2026-01-18 0.010636 0.019304 0.036917 0.079876 0.199764 0.595302 2.613663
2026-01-25 0.009451 0.017556 0.034555 0.077812 0.206001 0.668028 3.417196
2026-02-01 0.008300 0.015714 0.031680 0.073777 0.205093 0.716506 4.220297
2026-02-08 0.007616 0.014755 0.030625 0.074333 0.219691 0.844967 6.028428
2026-02-15 0.006990 0.013830 0.029489 0.074413 0.233229 0.986574 8.608546
2026-02-22 0.006523 0.013191 0.028929 0.076070 0.254058 1.195308 13.264004
2026-03-01 0.006083 0.012551 0.028254 0.077231 0.274170 1.433895 20.575150
2026-03-08 0.005572 0.011677 0.026832 0.075639 0.282109 1.611598 29.103316
2026-03-15 0.004944 0.010451 0.024292 0.069686 0.267383 1.608792 33.497197
2026-03-22 0.004631 0.009949 0.023633 0.070065 0.283837 1.890575 52.946972
2026-03-29 0.004406 0.009636 0.023439 0.072087 0.310578 2.330973 95.595612
2026-04-05 0.004158 0.009233 0.022925 0.072809 0.331401 2.777387 168.317655